The outfield

Today we will look at the Giants 2009 outfield. I will first discuss whom Manager Bruce Bochy will start and whom I think should start.

There have been no acquisitions this offseason by the Giants in the outfield so far so we will look similar to how we did in 2008.

Right Field:

Randy Winn started the majority of the games (155) in 2008, and did an excellent job. He played well above his average UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) of 16.9. This means that Randy Winn saved 16.9 runs with his glove in 2008, whereas his previous best was 8.4 in 2006. To put this into perspective I will compare him to another player that many people think is a poor outfielder: Manny Ramirez. Ramirez’s UZR was -4.8 in 2008 meaning that his defense gave up this many runs. Needless to say, Randy did and has done an excellent job in right field for the Giants. Randy also had an excellent season at the plate as well. Winn, a career .288 hitter hit above his average at .306 and is projected by the CHONE’s to hit .281 in 2009. I expect another solid year from Winn both offensively and defensively.

There is also Nate Schierholtz, who is out of minor league options and will have to be on the Giants roster come opening day. Nate has an above average arm and hits for average. If the Giants fall out of contention before the trade deadline, I see the Giants trading Winn, which would free-up right field for Schierholtz. But until then Winn’s the starter.  Bochy chooses: Winn

Center Field

Prior to the 2008 season, Brian Sabean signed Aaron (or as Bonds calls him: Scott) Rowand to a 5-year deal worth $60m. He was signed on after a great 2007 season with Philadelphia, where he hit .309/.374/.515. Before this solid season with the Phillies, Rowand’s career averages were .280/.337/.442.

Was the 2007 season with Philly a fluke? Well, lets see what he did in 2008 with the Giants. Rowand hit .271/.339/.410 which results in a decreases in production in all categories from 2007 of .038/.035/.105 . Ask again. Was the 2007 season a fluke? Probably. I think the Giants fans expected the 2007 stats from Rowand and this is why they are so frustrated to have locked down in the outfield for 4 more years. Rowand will probably bounce back to hit his career average from his first 6 seasons, not including 2007 and 2008. /Fingers crossed

 Also include the fact that Rowand was signed for his “Gamertude” and defense in center field. He did not live up to those expectations in 2008. He earned the nickname of “Errant Throwand” by continuously missing the cutoff man and sailing throws into the infield. Rowand was -12 in UZR last year while being a solid 6.5 UZR prior to moving to SF. This means that AT&T’s outfield takes a real special fielder to do a good job out there. So we can add Rowand to the list of outfielders that Sabean has signed to play center that are much better corner outfielders. Some examples are Marvin Benard and Dave Roberts. Randy Winn could play a better center field than Rowand but as mentioned above, Winn is an excellent defensive right fielder which is much needed in playing in front of McCovey Cove. Unfortunately Bochy Chooses: Rowand

Left Field

In 2008 Fred Lewis emerged as a bright young potential star for the Giants. He played good defensively and hit well with flashes of power. Fred is a guy that makes things happen offensively, whether it is bunting, or stealing a base. Lewis hit .282/.351/.440 in 2008 and CHONE projects him to hit .262/.346/.404. These are some significant drops in production that are being projected. The Giants sure hope they are wrong. As for defense, Fred was a 7 on the UZR scale in 2008.

Lewis is coming off offseason surgery to surgically remove a bunion on his foot and apparently from all reports is ready to go come spring training. Bochy Chooses: Fred Lewis

 

So Bochy’s outfield would look like this:

LF: Fred Lewis

CF: Errant Throwand

RF: Randy Winn

 

My outfield would look like this:

LF: Nate Scheirholtz

CF: Fred Lewis

RF: Randy Winn

The only way to do this would be that the Giants traded Rowand for prospects while paying for a significant amount of his salary. This way the Giants would free up a spot that could potentially be being blocked by having Rowand on the roster.  In a very small sample size, Lewis played 14 games in CF while having a -2.4 UZR. If Lewis could be around ~0 UZR then he would definitely suffice in CF. Furthermore, if the Giants paid off Roberts they would even have another spot on the roster for the team to grow younger. Either way, the Giants outfield will be below average offensively and defensively.

 

Next time I will discuss the Giants pitchers.