An in depth look at RP Jeremy Affeldt

Today I will be looking at newly acquired relief pitcher Jeremy Affeldt.

Affeldt was the first free agent signed this offseason. The Giants and Sabean must think highly of Affeldt as he was the first of 171 available free agents signed this offseason.

When signed, Bochy said, “I’m thrilled to have Jeremy. He is going to make our bullpen that much stronger. I’ve seen him from the other side and I never liked him with his power arm. He’s resilient. Jeremy is getting in his prime.”

I feel much the same as Bochy does. Affeldt reaches the mid-nineties from the left side and has the ability to strike batters out. Here is a graph of his career H/Inn, BB/Inn, K/Inn.

Click to Enlarge

In 2008, JA was about 3/1 for his K/BB ratio. In his earlier years you can see that he was a starter for the KC Royals while also making appearances out of the ‘pen, which means JA should be able to go longer than one inning from time to time.

JA signed a two-year deal on November 17th with the Giants where he received a $1M signing bonus and will earn $3M in ’09 and $4M in ’10. This makes JA the highest paid relief pitcher on the Giants’ staff.

Affeldt should make a vast improvement for bullpen that struggled in 2008. If all goes to plan and he remains a consistent pitcher, the Giants should be better at holding down leads late in games or keeping the game close.

This signing has been ranked as the #10 best offseason acquisition in all of baseball by MLB Outsider.

 Sabean gets my approval for this move.

The outfield

Today we will look at the Giants 2009 outfield. I will first discuss whom Manager Bruce Bochy will start and whom I think should start.

There have been no acquisitions this offseason by the Giants in the outfield so far so we will look similar to how we did in 2008.

Right Field:

Randy Winn started the majority of the games (155) in 2008, and did an excellent job. He played well above his average UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) of 16.9. This means that Randy Winn saved 16.9 runs with his glove in 2008, whereas his previous best was 8.4 in 2006. To put this into perspective I will compare him to another player that many people think is a poor outfielder: Manny Ramirez. Ramirez’s UZR was -4.8 in 2008 meaning that his defense gave up this many runs. Needless to say, Randy did and has done an excellent job in right field for the Giants. Randy also had an excellent season at the plate as well. Winn, a career .288 hitter hit above his average at .306 and is projected by the CHONE’s to hit .281 in 2009. I expect another solid year from Winn both offensively and defensively.

There is also Nate Schierholtz, who is out of minor league options and will have to be on the Giants roster come opening day. Nate has an above average arm and hits for average. If the Giants fall out of contention before the trade deadline, I see the Giants trading Winn, which would free-up right field for Schierholtz. But until then Winn’s the starter.  Bochy chooses: Winn

Center Field

Prior to the 2008 season, Brian Sabean signed Aaron (or as Bonds calls him: Scott) Rowand to a 5-year deal worth $60m. He was signed on after a great 2007 season with Philadelphia, where he hit .309/.374/.515. Before this solid season with the Phillies, Rowand’s career averages were .280/.337/.442.

Was the 2007 season with Philly a fluke? Well, lets see what he did in 2008 with the Giants. Rowand hit .271/.339/.410 which results in a decreases in production in all categories from 2007 of .038/.035/.105 . Ask again. Was the 2007 season a fluke? Probably. I think the Giants fans expected the 2007 stats from Rowand and this is why they are so frustrated to have locked down in the outfield for 4 more years. Rowand will probably bounce back to hit his career average from his first 6 seasons, not including 2007 and 2008. /Fingers crossed

 Also include the fact that Rowand was signed for his “Gamertude” and defense in center field. He did not live up to those expectations in 2008. He earned the nickname of “Errant Throwand” by continuously missing the cutoff man and sailing throws into the infield. Rowand was -12 in UZR last year while being a solid 6.5 UZR prior to moving to SF. This means that AT&T’s outfield takes a real special fielder to do a good job out there. So we can add Rowand to the list of outfielders that Sabean has signed to play center that are much better corner outfielders. Some examples are Marvin Benard and Dave Roberts. Randy Winn could play a better center field than Rowand but as mentioned above, Winn is an excellent defensive right fielder which is much needed in playing in front of McCovey Cove. Unfortunately Bochy Chooses: Rowand

Left Field

In 2008 Fred Lewis emerged as a bright young potential star for the Giants. He played good defensively and hit well with flashes of power. Fred is a guy that makes things happen offensively, whether it is bunting, or stealing a base. Lewis hit .282/.351/.440 in 2008 and CHONE projects him to hit .262/.346/.404. These are some significant drops in production that are being projected. The Giants sure hope they are wrong. As for defense, Fred was a 7 on the UZR scale in 2008.

Lewis is coming off offseason surgery to surgically remove a bunion on his foot and apparently from all reports is ready to go come spring training. Bochy Chooses: Fred Lewis

 

So Bochy’s outfield would look like this:

LF: Fred Lewis

CF: Errant Throwand

RF: Randy Winn

 

My outfield would look like this:

LF: Nate Scheirholtz

CF: Fred Lewis

RF: Randy Winn

The only way to do this would be that the Giants traded Rowand for prospects while paying for a significant amount of his salary. This way the Giants would free up a spot that could potentially be being blocked by having Rowand on the roster.  In a very small sample size, Lewis played 14 games in CF while having a -2.4 UZR. If Lewis could be around ~0 UZR then he would definitely suffice in CF. Furthermore, if the Giants paid off Roberts they would even have another spot on the roster for the team to grow younger. Either way, the Giants outfield will be below average offensively and defensively.

 

Next time I will discuss the Giants pitchers.

The Infield

In this post I will discuss the possible starting lineups that Giants skipper Bruce Bochy will use throughout the season and the lineups that I would like him to use. Lets see how different our views are.

With the acquisitions of Edgar Renteria and Josh Phelps the Giants will have more potential power that the previous season. Bruce Bochy and Brian Sabean have said that the Giants will use the 21-year-old slugger Pablo Sandoval at third base. So this solidifies the left side of the infield to Renteria and Sandoval. Bochy chooses: SS – Renteria , 3B - Sandoval

Second base is up for grabs with Eugenio Velez, Emmanuel Burriss and Kevin Frandsen. Minor leaguer Jesus Guzman still has an outside shot for 2B as well after an impressive showing in the Venezuela Winter League as he led the VWL in RBI’s (67), and was only out hit by Pablo Sandoval for highest average. Guzman also earned the honor as the MVP of the league. Frandsen has earned the right to be considered for the starting spot even after he did not play all of last year due to a torn Achilles tendon. Frandsen had a very solid offseason in the Arizona Fall League and has hit at every level while in the minors. Burriss did an adequate job last year filling in at 2B and SS for San Francisco. Burris started the 2008 year in Low-A Augusta, High-A San Jose, then on to AAA Fresno while hitting .321avg - .165avg- .258avg respectively. While up in the bigs Emmanuel hit .283/.357/.329 while stealing 13 bases and playing above average 2B and average SS. I will not give Eugenio Velez mush press for the simple fact that I do not think he is nearly as good as either Frandsen or Burris. He is a below average hitter, and has the nickname of PickOffVonIronGlove. The only tool that Velez possesses is that he quick and has the ability to steal a base (considering if he is not picked off). Bochy chooses: 2B – Frandsen

First base is between Travis Ishikawa and Josh Phelps. Ishi started out last year in AA Connecticut posting a line of .289/.383/.461 while smacking out 8 homeruns in 64 games in the pitcher friendly park. Travis was then called up to AAA Fresno for a 48 game stint while he hit .310/.370/.737 with 16 home runs. While in Fresno, Ishi had an OPS of 1.107 which is very exceptional for AAA. He has done about everything right to give himself a legitimate spot at starting in 2009. Josh Phelps was signed to a minor league deal this offseason and has the tools to be a very key power asset to the Giants if he is penciled in over 60% of the staring lineup cards for the reason that he hit 31 homeruns for AAA Memphis (STL) and put up a line of .291/.373/.568 in 126 games. Phelps also posted a .993 Fielding percentage while only committing 7 errors. Bochy chooses: Phelps

 

 

So the way I see it, Bochy will have:

1B – Phelps

2B – Frandsen

SS – Renteria

3B – Sandoval

 

What yours truly would like to see:

1B – Sandoval (Phelps)

         I believe 3B is too much for a 21-year-old to handle. Pablo is a natural catcher and is being asked to start at the hot corned in the Pros which is definitely not an easy task. Even though Sandoval has proven to be very mobile and quick for a big guy, I feel much more comfortable with at First base where he can primarily focus on his hitting and not worry about learning a new position that is more demanding than 1B.

2B – Jesus Guzman (Frandsen)

          Jesus is a natural 3B but is very raw in his abilities from what he has shown in the minors, but has done much better at the 2B position. I want his bat in this lineup and I see that this is the only way to get that done.

SS – Renteria (Aurilia, Frandsen)

3B – Kevin Frandsen (Aurilia, Guzman)

          I like the idea of Frandsen at third base for the reason that he is a better hitter than and has a better arm than Burris and his name is not Pablo.

Either my way or Bochy’s way, the Giants infield will not be great but will not be horrible either. At least you do not see Brian Bocock’s name anywhere on either list.

There will be an odd man out on either one of these lists, and I would like to see Burriss and Ishikawa to play a full year of AAA, and Designate For Assignment Velez or tuck him away in the minors somewhere. There would be 6 infielders and Sandoval would backup Molina at catcher with Phelps being the emergency catcher, which would also allow the Giants to have a 13 pitching staff and a 5-man outfield.

 

Next time I will discuss the outfield….

 

The Offseason so far...

Giants Offseason So Far:

 

The Giants have signed a few key players this offseason that will help in positions where they lacked depth in the 2008 season.

To start, the Giants signed Edgar Renteria to a 2-year deal after the Detroit Tigers declined arbitration. The Giants had very minimal production from the Shortstop position in 2008. Omar Vizquel was the plan going into the preseason, but an injury sidelined him for a big portion of the first half of the season. The opening day starter was Brian Bocock who had no business starting for any AAA team let alone a MLB team. Emmanuel Burris and Ivan Ochoa also filled in during Vizquel’s absence. Once Omar returned from the DL he did very little to hold onto the starting job.

So going into spring training this year the Giants have filled the hole at the SS position with Renteria, while some scouts say that he has lost a step and are concerned about his range to his right, but the Giants will be better than the last year with this addition. The Chone Projections have projected Edgar has the potential to be a .283/.345/.408 batter this year. These projections are leaps and bounds above SS stats from last year. The best part of the Renteria addition is that the Giants did not lose a draft choice by signing him as a non-tendered free-agent and his 2-year contract does not block any young prospects beyond the 2010 season.

The Giants also signed multiple Cy Young award winner Randy Johnson to a 1-year 8m contract with potential 5m in bonuses for awards and production. I love this acquisition for the fact that it is only 1-year. Some might say that Randy is past his prime and is 45 years old, which all is true, but he also pitched very well last year and had no health issues. With the uncertainty of Noah Lowry as he comes offseason ending surgery of the forearm before the 2008 campaign, Randy will provide a leader on and off the field. The Giants manager Bruce Bochy has stated that if Lowry is healthy that he will start over Jonathan Sanchez for the final spot in the rotation. Randy Johnson is also 5 wins away from 300 career wins and may very well be the last pitcher in history to reach that feat.

The bullpen in 2008 was a bit shaky, so Giants General Manager Brian Sabean addressed this issue early this offseason by signing left hander Jeremy Affeldt and Bob Howry.

Affeldt, a converted starter, pitched for the Reds last year and features a 95+ MPH fastball signed a two year deal. Howry pitched for the Cubs in 2008, and adds a veteran presence late in the game to accommodate closer Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo, Alex Hinshaw, and Jack Taschner.

An area of concern is the young promising slugger Pablo Sandoval starting at third base. Bochy has said this offseason that he will be the guy at the hot corner and Travis Ishikawa and Josh Phelps platooning at first base. Sandoval’s natural position is catcher, but while the Giants already having Bengie Molina penciled in as catcher, Bochy is forced to find a way to get Sandoval’s bat in the lineup. Even though Sandoval moves well for a big guy, I still have concerns that he will be able to handle 3^rd base. The Giants have been linked to rumors this offseason with Jorge Cantu, Ty Wigginton, and Joe Crede as possible 3^rd base acquisitions.

 

Next time I will discuss the starting lineup and starting pitcher rotation.

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